As climate impacts increase, how can governments better identify, assess, and prioritize risks?
by Alyssa Hill and Dylan Clark
Climate change is having widespread and often devastating impacts on communities across British Columbia. In the past few years, wildfires, floods, drought, and extreme heat have significantly affected people’s health, homes, and livelihoods, ecosystems, and the economy.
Unless climate risks are better managed, the impacts and costs will continue to grow. Understanding where and why climate risks exist is an essential first step to addressing potential impacts and increasing resilience.
An imperfect tool: risk assessment challenges
Climate change risk assessments are a common tool used by organizations to understand how climate change could impact people and places. And, across B.C., both public and private sectors are using climate change risk assessments to understand threats and prioritize adaptation opportunities.
But not all risk assessments are seeing the same horizon. In our recent report, Bridging climate research and risk assessments: A research and knowledge mobilization agenda, we found that risk assessments are not consistently using the best evidence to measure and prioritize risks. This means many organizations are looking at a broken compass while navigating into a storm.
Our report included guidance and input from over 200 experts and knowledge holders in B.C., and we collectively identified common pitfalls that may be leading to incomplete, inaccurate, or ineffective risk assessments facing both private and public sectors in B.C.:
- Poor coordination across governments and organizations, resulting in inefficiencies, duplication, and inconsistent assumptions;
- Oversimplification of complex and interconnected risks and exclusion of social and policy risk drivers (e.g. forest management practices, land-use policy, colonization);
- Overreliance on quantitative data and experts, and limited inclusion of perspectives from the communities who experience impacts;
- Exclusion of Indigenous worldviews, Knowledges, and priorities; and
- Results do not clearly unlock risk reductions and adaptation
The next generation of risk assessments
Fortunately, there are clear opportunities to strengthen and re-think risk assessment practice. We found examples across the province and country of organizations and institutions that are evolving a new generation of risk assessments. Drawing from these lessons, we have highlighted a variety of actions to strengthen assessments, better integrate evidence, and support applied decision-making.
Assessments are coordinated across B.C.
- Use of consistent definitions and concepts
- Information shared across and between organizations and governments to reduce duplication
- Guidance that is tailored to different regions or project type
Assessments are more systems-focused, integrated and include drivers of risk
- Assessment of all hazards and consequences to community or organization-specific values and priorities
- Mapping of cascading and compounding risk where possible
- Incorporation of cumulative effects and other socioeconomic factors that contribute to risk
Assessments are participatory and incorporate diverse ways of knowing and being
- Use of multiple information sources (e.g., geospatial, academic research, storytelling, Indigenous and local knowledges)
- Inclusion of equity-denied and diverse voices; trust and relationships are foundational
- Advances First Nations Rights and Title (that aligns with the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples) through Indigenous-led guidance
Assessments produce outcomes that are operational
- Linkage of assessments to emergency and adaptation planning
- Alignment between risk assessment scope and organizational policy levers to manage risks
- Long-term funding and capacity and addressing barriers to implementation
Evolving from risk identification to risk navigation
The number of risk assessment happening in B.C. is about to increase substantially. In the near future, it is anticipated the Government of B.C. will be updating risk assessment guidance and requirements through regulatory changes. These changes may mean that many governments and crown corporations in B.C. will be updating their risk assessments.
All too often, what gets measured, is what gets managed. And risk assessments aren’t always measuring important hazards and the diverse considerations that people value. We must also find innovative ways to honour Indigenous leadership and knowledges given how many Nations live on the front lines of a changing climate.
As the next round of risk assessments move forward in B.C., we have an opportunity to increase our ambition, ability, and accountability to safeguard people’s health, homes, and livelihoods, ecosystems, and the economy. By rethinking and evolving our approach to risk assessments, we can navigate the future and make better informed choices about tough decisions we must confront in an era of climate change.
We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the Province of British Columbia through the Ministry of Emergency Management and Climate Readiness.
Alyssa Hill is a project analyst with the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions.
Dylan Clark is the director of research mobilization with the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions.